SF Giants 2024-2025 Offseason: Free Agency Begins

A lot has happened since I last posted on Halloween. Blake Snell is no longer a Giant, the GM meetings in San Antonio have concluded, two Giants won Gold Gloves, and free agency has begun sparking rumors across MLB.

First off, congratulations are in order for Matt Chapman and Patrick Bailey for winning NL Gold Gloves for their outstanding defense in 2024. Both candidates were shoe-ins for this award and MLB got it right. Chapman wins his 5th total Gold Glove and Patrick Bailey wins his 1st. Although, PB should've won it last year as well. Just about every night we felt the effects of Chapman's defense in a positive way. He makes plays all over the place. He sealed the deal for his 1st National League Gold Glove on the walk-off barehand chopper off Mark Vientos against the Mets in New York. I firmly believe that no other 3B in MLB could have made that play and he made it look easy. The way he plays so hard and cares about every aspect of the game should be a building block for the Giants moving forward. Especially since he is locked up until the end of the decade in 2029. Patrick Bailey on the other hand, was the most fun to watch on a nightly basis. Framing has become the most valuable aspect of run value for a catcher and he steals strikes like Sly Cooper. His hands and timing are incredible. He can read exactly where the ball will end up, overly beat it to that spot, and bring his glove back toward the middle of the strike zone all within the blink of an eye. Another exciting part of his game is controlling the run game with his arm. It is no secret that the new rules favor the baserunner but, you would not be able to tell with Pat Bailey back there. Quick release and accuracy from a side arm slot are the top factors for his above average pop time. Throwing out top base stealers like Shohei Ohtani, Elly De La Cruz, and Corbin Carroll made PB the new gunslinger in town. His value was made apparent when he was hurt for a couple weeks and teams were running rampant. If you like baseball defense, I urge you to go watch the Matt Chapman and Patrick Bailey highlights from 2024. You will not be disappointed, I smile every time.

Some other big but expected news was Blake Snell opted out of his $30 million player option to go back into free agency. Back in 2023 when the Giants signed him late in the offseason, it was apparent that Snell would want to retest the market again in 2024. The Giants swooped in and got him fairly cheap (for a reigning Cy Young winner) and gave him opt-outs after each season of his contract. Unfortunately for San Francisco, we only got about half a season's worth out of Snell due to the late signing and his reoccurring hip injury. When he was on, he was the best pitcher in baseball. On August 2nd, Snell threw the first No-Hitter of his career. It happened in dominating fashion as he struck out 11 batters in 9 innings. We can only hope that his highs in a Giants uniform will entice him to come back because it seems as if he will be outside of the club's financial reach.

Speaking of the San Francisco Giant's finances, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reported that the Giants are "expected to step back from the $206 million they spent last season, when they finished 80-82." citing a league source familiar with the team's plans. Chairman Greg Johnson rebutled this statement in a text to Baggarly stating, "Our goal is to try and field the most competitive team... We want to make smart baseball decisions that balance the short term and long term". When I saw the source was not from the organization, I immediately discredited this report. Yes, the team is not just going to solve all their problems by signing every free agent for over market value. This has been the MO of this franchise long before Buster became President of Baseball Ops. My hope is that they aggressively pursue the players they think will be a fit for this team and make it better without leveraging the future of the franchise. I project the 2025 payroll to land in the $185-$190 million range which gives the team about $30 million to play with this offseason (realistically). According to Greg Johnson, there is no 'set number' so I could see them going over my projection for the right talent. It's also pretty disappointing news for fans as this means they are most likely out on the top free agent of the 2025 class, Juan Soto.

Do the Giants really want Soto, though? I short answer is, hell yes, but does he 100% fit this team? He will make any team that signs him immediately a playoff and World Series contender. Offensively, he is second to none at his age and prowess. The Giants may no longer be prioritizing impact offense at this point in time. Was the offense shaky last season, yes. The inconsistencies came with runners in scoring position all season long. Although this was a hot topic, I don't hear anyone speaking about this weakness within the organization. In Patrick Bailey's Gold Glove interview with MLB Network, he mentioned, "pitching and defense" as the pillars of success in San Francisco. Posey clearly values them as well, having experienced it firsthand as a player during the Dynasty Era in San Francisco. Putting it nicely, Soto is a weak defender. His solid arm and youth carried the little value he put forth in 2024 but how long until that runs out? I believe the Giants see him as a future DH which the Giants could definitely use, but it will significantly cap their offer in contract negotiations. In the few years he has left playing the outfield, Oracle Park will eat him alive. He would without a doubt be put in LF and have to deal with the bay area wind and wide room that the Oracle outfield has to offer. Bottom line is they should try to sign Soto using the trendy deferment strategy the Dodgers used with Ohtani so as not to strap the team financially for the next 15 years. Only time will tell if Soto will accept these terms. My money is on the Mets to sign Juan Soto this offseason.

The one free agent the Giants are rumored to be aggressively pursuing is 29 year-old Shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim. In light of recent payroll news and direction of the franchise, Kim is the best fitting player for the Giants in all of free agency. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Giants are focused on signing Kim and are the team 'most interested'. He is a plus defender at all infield positions with speed and a slightly above average bat as well. The Giants should have the leg up on all the free agency competition as they currently employ fellow Korean and friend, Jung-Hoo Lee, in their outfield. A Korean 1-2 punch at the top of the Giant lineup could be great fun to watch battle the Japanese stars of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers. Although if they do sign Kim, my projected Opening Day lineup looks more like this:

Lee CF

Chapman 3B

Wade Jr. 1B

Ramos DH

Yastrzemski RF

Fitzgerald 2B

Bailey C

Kim SS

McCray LF

Camilo Doval has also been in rumors this offseason as a potential trade candidate. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports 'interest' around the league for Doval who could still be a high end closer. Doval's market definitely took a hit from his 2023 All-Star staus as his 2024 was riddled with struggles. So far in the Dominican Winter League its been more of the same ups and downs. One night, he's striking out the side for a save. The very next night, he's blowing a 2-run lead in the 9th. With pitching and defense being the future of this organization, I think having depth in the bullpen could be extremely valuable. Best case scenario in my mind is the Giants figure out what is going on with Camilo and help him become a more serviceable reliever in 2025. Although, if they can address another team need by trading him, I would be happy with that as well. So far it seems the Giant's needs are middle infield, starting pitching, and outfield depth. I think they will end up signing Ha-Seong Kim so that leaves starting pitching or outfield depth for Camilo Doval. Potentially, I could see Freddy Peralta being a fit in San Francisco if the Brewers would part ways with him. He is a top-end starter who primarily relies on strikeouts and flyballs to get outs. While Doval could provide some stability in the Milwaukee bullpen. Since Doval's market has dropped a bit and Peralta is currently the Brewer's Ace for $8 million a year it'll probably take a few prospects also to get this deal done. Trading for Peralta would add approximately $4.5 million to the current projected payroll for 2025 and he has a club option for $8 million in 2026. This is the kind of savvy move I could see the Giants pursuing (like Kim) if they believe in Freddy Peralta. Just please for the love of God, DO NOT trade Camilo Doval to any team in the NL West.